Analytics Blog | Aussie WT Race Block

Aussie World Tour Races! 

This article and this series will focus on racing blocks. I’ve defined racing blocks as a collection of independent races which some or the majority of the field ride the same set of races. Grand Tours count as their own block, but we will look into the Giro-Tour double and track how Pogacar and Thomas go (and similar with Tour-Vuelta double).

That list will be pending changes as we get closer to the race dates.

But onto the Aussie World Tour Races proper!

Women's Race

Starting with the Women’s Aussie WT Race Block, we split four stages, with three in the Tour Down Under and the Deakin University Road Race. The only flat stage was the TDU Stage 1, with TDU Stages 2 and 3 being hilly - as is the Deakin University Road Race. TDU Stage 2 and Deakin University Road Race are expected to be sprints, but how big will the bunch be? 

TDU Stages 1 and 2 were bunch sprints, meaning that the Queen stage for the block (TDU Stage 3), which goes up Old Willunga Hill, was always going to be the most decisive stage. When Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig (FDJ-Suez) won the bunch sprint for Stage 2, I was wondering if she could hold, but it wasn't to be (she ended up finishing 62 seconds down in 14th place in the queen stage).

In the end, Sarah Gigante (AG Insurance-Soudal) absolutely destroyed the peloton up Old Willunga Hill. She put 16 seconds on the stage (20 including bonus seconds) into her closest rival, Nienke Vinke (Visma | Lease-a-bike), ahead of Neve Bradbury (Canyon-SRAM) in third, at 33 seconds on GC. Amanda Spratt finished in fourth at 37 seconds, impressively finishing 10th, 7th and 4th in each stage (before unfortunately not starting the Deakin University Road Race due to illness).

Looking at recent history, the Deakin University Road Race is not a race which tends to have big splits. But I am putting bonus seconds for one-day races, so it was a good chance for results to move around. That said, Sarah Gigante just needed to stay within the leading group, or near it - which she did. However, I was completely wrong about my prediction for a close race.

The majority of riders who entered TDU, also entered Deakin University Road Race especially the ones in contention. The main riders to not race both races were Amanda Spratt of Lidl-Trek (entering in 4th and 37 seconds behind), 

Nicole Frain, racing as an invitee for the Australia National Team (finished 10th and 62 seconds behind at the TDU), and Soraya Paladin of Canyon-SRAM (entering in 17th and 82 seconds behind).

That left two places in the Top 10 available, and they were grabbed at. The race was all over the place and saw Rosita Reijnhout (Visma Lease-a-Bike) win the Deakin University Road Race ahead of Dominika Wlodarczyk (UAE ADQ) and Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig (FDJ-Suez). Meaning Wlodarczyk (2nd, at 33 seconds) and Reijnhout (3rd, at 52 seconds) finished on the Aussie WT Race Block Podium. Ludwig used her 14 bonus seconds to finish in 4th (53 seconds off Gignate), with Nienke Vinke of Visma Lease-a-bike falling to 5th after losing 34 seconds on the final race. Neve Bradbury crashed but made an impressive recovery to finish only 34 seconds down and keep her Top 10 Race Block Overall (dropping from 3rd).

The other performance to note is that if we exclude bonus seconds, Victorie Guilman (St Michel-Mavic-Auber 93) would have finished 3rd, but in the end finished 6th.

While GC Time is one way to track the races, we will also look at the most consistent finishers. Cecile Uttrup Ludwig (FDJ-Suez) won TDU Stage 2 and podiumed Deakin University Road Race, as well as an 8th on the flat stage (TDU Stage 1) and 14th up Old Willunga Hill to win the Most Consistent Rider Award. Francesca Barale ([team]) also got every close to the award finishing 4th on TDU Stage 2, with 6th place on both TDU Stage 1 and Deakin University Road Race.

I'll be looking to expand my reports, but this is just the start! 

Men's Race

We just discussed the Women’s Aussie WT Race Block, and now to look at the Men’s…

This race block has seven stages, with FirstCycling.com splitting it into three flat days (TDU Stages 1, 3 and 4) and four hilly days (TDU Stages 2, 5 and 6, as well as the Cadel Evans Road Race).

The flat stages of TDU 1, 3 and 4 were the fight for stage wins and bonus seconds for the GC players. Biniam Girmay (Intermarche-Wanty) was someone that was interesting for me, but he didn't compete up Old Willunga Hill, as he collected 10 bonus seconds during the first four stages. He just missed out on 4 seconds on TDU Stage 2 after finishing 4th, as well! Isaac Del Toro (UAE Team Emirates) also picked up 10 seconds by winning TDU Stage 2, which also saw Stevie Williams (3rd) lead out Corbin Strong (2nd) to a 2-3 for Israel Premier-Tech. 

TDU Stage 5, finishing up Old Willunga Hill, was the Queen stage, with everyone coming in small groups. The top 20 came in the eight different groups over 32 seconds. Oscar Onley (DSM), Stevie Williams (Israel Premier-Tech) and Jhonatan Narvaez (Ineos) were the leading group. That meant that Williams and Onley (same time), Narvaez (5 seconds back) and with bonus seconds involved, Isaac Del Toro (UAE Team Emirates) was only 5 seconds behind with one stage to go and were all in contention to win the TDU.

The final stage of the TDU, Stage 6, saw Stevie Williams (Israel Premier-Tech) win ahead of Jhonatan Narvaez (Ineos), Isaac Del Toro (UAE Team Emirates) and Bart Lemmen (Visma | Lease-a-Bike) as a front group. Laurence Pitchie (Groupama-FDJ) finished 3 seconds off with all the other contenders 10 seconds behind Stevie Williams.

What that meant was going into Cadel Evans Road Race, the top two Men's races weren't split without bonus seconds but only 9 seconds with bonuses. Narvaez still had a decent chance of winning the Aussie WT Race Block; he just needed to win the Cadel Evans Road Race or get a gap to Stevie Williams.

Another big change in results was the majority of the Top 10 from the TDU didn't start. Either their teams didn't enter the race or they weren't selected - the upcoming riders of Del Toro (UAE Team Emirates) and Bart Lemmen (Visma Lease-a-bike) were included in this. If there weren't any bonus seconds, Lemmen would have finished 3rd in the TDU (and still finished an impressive 5th overall). 

With Onley abandoning the Cadel Evans Road Race (I wish him well in his recovery) and a lot of the Top 10 from the TDU not starting, the fight for the podium was between Nick Schultz (Israel Premier-Tech), Georg Zimmermann (Intermarche-Wanty) and Laurence Pithie (Groupama-FDJ) - the latter being in fantastic form on the final stage of the TDU to finish 5th.

While the battle for the final podium got slightly let down by a lot of DNS, the battle for the win was not. There was a group of 19 riders going into the finish with Laurence Pithie winning by very close margins ahead of Natnael Tesfazion (Lidl-Trek) and Georg Zimmerman (Intermarche-Wanty).

Stevie Williams (Israel Premier-Tech) went for an attack with just over 1km to go while his teammate and leader, Corbin Strong, for the Cadel Evans Road Race waited for the sprint. When Stevie got caught, he sat up and lost the 12 seconds to Narvaez (who sprinted to 5th). That is the joy of the Race Block classification; after all, it's for fun - I'm sure Stevie would have sat in the group if it was the additional stage of the TDU.

Narvaez is a deserved winner, though; he finished with the stage winner on every stage in the Aussie WT Race Block after opening with a win at the Down Under Crit. 

When looking at the fight for the Aussie WT Race Block, Nick Schultz (like Stevie Williams) worked for Corbin Strong and, therefore lost some time, dropping from provisional 3rd with 5km to go. That left Georg Zimmerman (Intermarche-Wanty) as 3rd on GC (44 seconds behind Narvaez) - including a great podium placing in the Cadel Evans Road Race. Pithie's win at Cadel Evans Road Race saw him jump up to 4th, his win taking him over Bauke Mollema (Lidl-Trek) who also finished 53 seconds behind Narvaez.

When looking at the Most Consistent Award, Jhonnatan Narvaez unsurprisingly dominated it. 2 Podiums (TDU Stage 5 and Stage 6), 2 Top 5s (TDU Stage 1 and Cadel Evans Road Race). TDU Stage 4 saw him finish 13th and his worst placing was 28th on TDU Stage 2 where he attacked and got caught. But it wasn't as clear victory as that makes it for this award due to Laurence Pithie. Pithie got one win (Cadel Evans Road Race), three additional Top 5s (TDU Stage 3, 4 and 6), with a Top 10 on Stage 2. He didn't compete on TDU Stage 1 (22nd). His worst day was up Old Willinga Hill where he finished 32nd. 

More to come but I loved making both the analytics and blogging it! If there are races, you want me to look at, reach out!